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AUD/USD: bulls finally in control ahead of key CPI next week

FXStreet (Guatemala) – AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7025 with a high of 0.7046 and low of 0.6986.AUD/USD has claimed the 0.70 handle this week and with conviction whilst remaining better bid towards the close, penetrating the 0.7020 resistance. Global markets improved in risk sentiment and yesterday’s session was the final catalyst where the Aussie was able to break through the 200 sma on the hourly sticks for the first time since opening this year. However, key data will also now start to kick in for Australia again next week and analysts at TD Securities explained, “We expect headline CPI to post a tepid +0.3%/qtr with seasonal increases in recreation and alcohol&tobacco curbed by a fall in petrol prices. Comparing the TD inflation gauge by sub-sector with the ABS measures (and our estimates) for these sectors accounts for ~63% of headline CPI. We expect annual inflation to end 2015 at 1.7%/yr, and for calendar 2015 CPI to be +1.5%/yr.”
AUD/USD levelsTechnically, with the break of the 0.7020 level, the pair is in a bullish phase having already reached the 38.2% retracement of the move down in an upside corrective near term. Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank explained, “The intraday Elliott wave counts are suggesting further strength to the 55 day ma at 0.7149. Above here we would allow for a return to 0.7220, the 78.6% retracement.”AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7025 with a high of 0.7046 and low of 0.6986.

(Market News Provided by FXstreet)Запись AUD/USD: bulls finally in control ahead of key CPI next week впервые появилась Forex.

Brazil: Selic rate will likely remain unchanged for some time – BBVA

FXStreet (Córdoba) – According to the Research Department at BBVA, the decision on Wednesday from the Brazil Central Bank to leave rates unchanged signaled that the rate will likely remain at the current level for a long time. Key Quotes: “The decision follows the adoption of a more hawkish tone by the monetary authority for some time up to the beginning of this week, when in an unusual comment the President Tombini regarded the IMF’s downward revision of Brazil’s growth forecasts (to -3.5% in 2016 and 0.0% in 2017) as “significant”, changing the previous guidance.”“The Selic rate will likely remain unchanged for some further time. Therefore, after signaling for some time that a monetary tightening was imminent, the Copom ended up focusing on the negative economic and likely also political effects of a further dose of monetary tightening in the actual context and leaving the Selic rate unchanged, as we expected.”“Taking that into account, the most likely is that the Selic rate will be left unchanged at 14.25% for some time going forward. Anyway, by highlighting “external uncertainties” the Copom suggested that the developments in China, commodity and financial markets will be more closely followed from now on, meaning that their evolution could shape future monetary policy decisions.”According to the Research Department at BBVA, the decision on Wednesday from the Brazil Central Bank to leave rates unchanged signaled that the rate will likely remain at the current level for a long time. (Market News Provided by FXstreet)Запись Brazil: Selic rate will likely remain unchanged for some time – BBVA впервые появилась Forex.

FED: Next hike unlikely before June – Rabobank

FXStreet (Córdoba) – Next week, one of the main events will be the FOMC meeting, the first one after the historic December rate hike. According to analysts from Rabobank, the US central bank will not raise rates until before the June meeting. Key Quotes: “While employment data suggest that the US economy has not lost momentum, the negative impact of the global economy on the manufacturing and mining sectors does show up in GDP data, in particular through business investment, inventories and net trade. In retrospect, the Fed managed to plan its liftoff date in one of the weakest quarters in terms of GDP growth since the US came out of recession in mid-2009.”“Recent developments are not likely to have eased the concerns about the downside risks to inflation that some FOMC members already had at the time of the December hike. This means that it will be more difficult to reach consensus on another hike in the near term. Therefore we do not expect the next hike before the June meeting.”“This month’s meeting does not include an update of the economic projections nor a press conference. Therefore we only have the formal statement to look forward to. The FOMC is likely to acknowledge the substantial slowdown in GDP growth that took place in Q4. Note that the December statement already stressed the importance of monitoring actual and expected progress of inflation toward its 2% target to keep all the doves on board.“While some Fed speakers continue to be complacent, we have our doubts about both the inflation outlook and the pace of the economic recovery, and consequently also about the four rate hikes that the Fed intends to deliver this year. In fact, a few Fed speakers now appear to share our concerns.”Next week, one of the main events will be the FOMC meeting, the first one after the historic December rate hike. According to analysts from Rabobank, the US central bank will not raise rates until before the June meeting. (Market News Provided by FXstreet)Запись FED: Next hike unlikely before June – Rabobank впервые появилась Forex.

GBP/CHF: from 8-month lows to 1-week highs in hours

FXStreet (Córdoba) – The pound reversed sharply across the board and ended various days of sharp declines with a dramatic bullish correction. GBP/CHF rose from the lowest level since May to the highest in a week. The pair dropped yesterday to test weekly lows at 1.4140/50 and rebounded, then it gained momentum after the European Central Bank decision and Draghi’s press conference. Today the rally continued and rose further.Recently peaked at 1.4566, the highest since last Thursday and it was holding near the highs, more than 400 pips above weekly lows. Weak CHF also boosting GBP/CHF

While a stronger pound pushed the pair to the upside, it was exacerbated by a weak Swiss franc. While GBP/USD extended the recovery form mutli-year lows and climbed above 1.4300, USD/CHF was rising of the third day in a row trading above 1.0100, at the highest level since early December. GBP/CHF levels to watch

To the upside, potential resistance levels could be located at 1.4600 (psychological / Dec 22 & 30 low) and 1.4640/50 (Dec 29 low / Jan 08 high). On the opposite direction, support might now lie at 1.4460 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement of recent rally) and 1.4380 (Jan 12 low / Jan 21 high). The pound reversed sharply across the board and ended various days of sharp declines with a dramatic bullish correction. GBP/CHF rose from the lowest level since May to the highest in a week. (Market News Provided by FXstreet)Запись GBP/CHF: from 8-month lows to 1-week highs in hours впервые появилась Forex.

Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for January 22, 2016

OverviewThe short-term bottom is likely to be in place at 163.96, just ahead of the 161.8% projection of 195.86 to 180.36 from 188.79 at 163.71, on bullish convergence condition in the 4-hour MACD. Intraday bias has turned neutral first. Intraday bias…Запись Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for January 22, 2016 впервые появилась Forex.

USD/CHF poised for a second weekly gain

FXStreet (Mumbai) – The drop in the safe haven demand for the CHF has put the USD/CHF pair on track to second weekly gain. Trading at seven-week highAt 1.0145, the pair is trading at a seven-week high. The demand for the safe haven CHF fell after the oil prices rose and the chatter about more ECB and BOJ easing stabilized the risk sentiment in the markets. Furthermore, ECB’s hint at more easing in March has also brought CHF under pressure since more easing from the ECB also means a high possibility that SNB would retaliate. As of now, the traders are ignoring the US data releases and remain focused on the stock markets.USD/CHF Technical LevelsThe immediate resistance is seen at 1.0220 (Nov 18 high), above which the pair could test 1.0261 (Nov 25 high). On the other hand, a break below 1.0114 (hourly 10-MA) would expose the hourly 50-MA at 1.0072. The drop in the safe haven demand for the CHF has put the USD/CHF pair on track to second weekly gain.

(Market News Provided by FXstreet)Запись USD/CHF poised for a second weekly gain впервые появилась Forex.

GBP/USD extends recovery, reaches 1-week high

FXStreet (Córdoba) – GBP/USD extended its recovery on Friday and regained the 1.4300 level despite disappointing readings coming from UK retail sales.GBP/USD has risen more than 250 pips over the last hours ever since hitting a fresh 7-year low of 1.4078 on Thursday. Cable reached a 1-week high of 1.4350 in recent dealings and it was last trading at 1.4345, recording a 0.89% gain on the day.The pound is on track to post a third daily gain in a row, what hadn’t happened since mid-November.GBP/USD technical levels

On the upside, immediate resistances are seen at 1.4400 (psychological level) and 1.4426 (Jan 15 high). On the flip side, supports could be found at 1.4203/00 (Jan 22 low/psychological level) and 1.4078 (7-year low, Jan 21).UK data mixedOn the data front, retail sales fell by 1.0% in December, against expectations for a 0.3% drop while YoY retail sales rose 2.6%, missing expectations for a 4.3% gain. A separate report showed that UK public sector net borrowing rose by £6.87 billion in December, less than the expected increase of £10.35 billion. GBP/USD extended its recovery on Friday and regained the 1.4300 level despite disappointing readings coming from UK retail sales.

(Market News Provided by FXstreet)Запись GBP/USD extends recovery, reaches 1-week high впервые появилась Forex.